A Glimpse of a Possible Peace

(The article was originally published in Indian Express on March 17, 2025 as a part of Dr Madhav’s column titled ‘Ram Rajya’. Views expressed are personal.)

EURASIA IS CURRENTLY an active theatre of two major conflicts – Ukraine and Gaza. The US is an important player in both. What will happen to these conflicts under the new US dispensation is an important question. There are many in Donald Trump’s administration, including high-profile leaders like Tulsi Gabbard, who believed that many conflicts that the US was engaged in the last couple of decades were unjust and unwarranted.

In November last year, I wrote in these columns that Trump would be a disruptive president, but it would be a structured disruption this time (He’s back with a vengeance, IE, November 9, 2024). Would he work towards ending these wars? Developments in the last couple of months suggest that there appears to be a certain method in what appears like disruption. Take for example the face off at the White House between Trump and his deputy, J D Vance, with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy a few weeks ago. Many who watched that acrimonious exchange live on their live TV screens concluded that the $500billion worth Ukrainian rare earth minerals deal that the Trump government was eying was over now as Zelenskyy was adamant about continuing with war with or without the US support.

The rare earth deal was to be signed that fateful afternoon last month at the Oval Office. “We are going to sign the agreement at the conference in the East Room in a little while right after lunch,” Trump announced before the start of the rare on-camera bilateral discussion with Zelenskyy. The proposed lunch neverhappened as Zelenskyy walked out of the White House after an acrimonious verbal duel with both Trump and Vance, leaving the entire world stunned. Zelenskyy had probably hoped that the rare earth deal, like the previous agricultural land exchange deals with American corporate giants like Black Rock, would help in his country to continue getting the support of the new administration. But the Trump-Vance duo seemed to have other plans. They wanted the rare earth deal, but they also the war to end.

At the botched White House meeting, Trump categorically told Zelenskyy that he wanted a ceasefire insisting that it would be “a damn good thing, and then you tell us, ‘1 don’t want a cease fire..’ Look, if you can get a ceasefire right now, I tell you, you take it so the bullets stop flying and your men stop getting killed”. Zelenskyy insisted on securing guarantees before agreeing to any ceasefire. He even proceeded. to London from Washington DC and received the endorsement of a few European leaders for his stand. But he and those European leaders knew well that without US support, Ukraine didn’t stand much chance.

In less than a couple of weeks, the Ukrainians were back at the negotiating table with their American counterparts in Saudi Arabia. While the Americans got their rare earth minerals, Ukraine  has announced a month-long ceasefire. It depends on how Putin responds to this Ukrainian initiative and whether Trump would be able to bring the Russian President to the negotiating table. But it can be safely concluded that the warin Ukraine is comingto an end. If not a final resolution, this ceasefire may now continue for many months to come, unless Putin thinks otherwise.

The Ukraine war was mired in many con- troversies. Barbara Bonte, a Belgian MEP, wrote last November to the EU Parliament that the American companies like “Cargill, ADM, BlackRock, Oaktree Capital Management and Bunge Limited, for instance, have reportedly gained control over much of Ukraine’s farmland.” Some believed that continuation of war was for the benefit of US corporate interests, while others may find that its ending too is benefitting US economic interests, especially since Ukraine is surrendering rare earth minerals to that country.

This was a war thrust on the people of Ukraine by the Western powers. It took a large toll of lives in Ukraine with estimates hovering around one million casualties. At the root of the war in Ukraine, which began more than three years ago, is the question of NATO expanding its territory to include newer countnes. The Russians under Putin were unwilling to allow the American missiles to be placed on their borders after Ukraine joined NATO. That was the crux of the negotiations until April 2022 between Ukraine and Russia, even while the Russian tanks started rolling into Ukraine. There were reports that the Russians would withdraw to their pre-2022 positions in exchange for Ukraine agreeing to not pursue its desire to join NATO. But again, it was the US and UK leadership that egged on the Ukrainians led by Zelenskyy to abandon those negotiations and engage instead in a war with the promise of all-out support. Boris Johnson, prime minister of the UK, visited Kyiv in April of that year and is said to have advised Zelenskyy to abandon talks with Russia because Putin cannot be trusted, and the West is not keen on ending the war. It was the Biden-Boris duo that forced reluctant European capitals like Paris and Brussels to plunge into the war in support of Ukraine.

There was no evidence that Russia in- tended to take over entire Ukraine at that time. There was mistrust about Putin’s in- tentions, but the issues at stake were the question of autonomy for the Donbas region and Ukraine’s insistence on joining NATO. It was the support of the US and the BU that sustained the war for three years.

Trump blamed his predecessor Biden for the war and insisted that he would end it. It may end soon, not necessarily for any principles, but as Jeffrey Sachs, eminent economist and professor at Columbia University pointed out, Trump may not want his country’s finances to be drained out for someone whom he sees as a “loser”.